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Lewis & Clark National Estimation and Awareness Study
Report Number: Research Report 76
Authors: Issues & Answers Network, Inc.
Month Published: May 2000
Executive Summary
Objectives
- Determine the level of awareness that exists for the Lewis and Clark Expedition.
- Establish a benchmark of interest in attending the bicentennial celebration to be held in Montana.
- Provide an estimate of the number of potential visitors to Montana for the event.
- Determine profile of potential visitors and where these visitors are most likely to go in the state.
Methodology
The Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research, administrator of the University Travel Research Program, on behalf of Montana's Tourism Advisory Council contracted with Issues & Answers Network, Inc., to conduct a national telephone survey in January 2000. A nationally projectable sampling of the continental U.S. less Montana was interview. A total of 2,020 interviews were conducted with adults at least 21 years old. The data were weighted to national gender, race, and age statistics.
Results: Visitor Projections
Montana should expect a total of 8.9 million additional visits for the Lewis & Clark Bicentennial Commemoration in addition to the "base" visitation that would normally be expected. This increase could occur in one of two ways:
- If all the increase takes place in 2005 and 2006, the anniversary of the Expedition in Montana, visitation levels would be 16.1 million in 2005 and 14.6 million in 2006 given that 60% of the increase occurs during 2005 when the most "adventurous" encounters took place.
- If all the increase takes place over the years 2003-2006 with 40% in 2003-2004 and 60% in 2005-2006, expectations amount to 11.7 million in 2003, 12.7 in 2004, 14 million in 2005, and 13.2 million in 2006.
While these projections may be hard to grasp when viewed on an annual basis, discussing them in light of the travel season puts them into the perspective. Based on a June 1 through October 31 visitation season with the 4-year projection from above, increases over "base" visitation would be as follows:
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Year |
Additional Individuals Statewide |
Additional Groups Statewide* |
Total Season |
Per Day |
Total Season |
Per Day |
2003 |
1.4 million |
9,150 |
583 thousand |
3,813 |
2004 |
2.1 million |
14,379 |
875 thousand |
5,991 |
2005 |
3.2 million |
20,915 |
1.3 million |
8,715 |
2006 |
2.1 million |
14,379 |
875 thousand |
5,991 |
* Based on a group size of 2.4 people.
Results: Profile of Lewis & Clark Visitors
- 48% were male and 52% were female, which is nearly identical to the US population.
- 52% had children in the household, compared to only 38% of the US population with children in the household. This suggests that family groups may be common Lewis & Clark travelers.
- 79% were Caucasian, compared with 81% of the US population.
- 18% reside in the Northeast, 44% in the South, 17% in the Mid-West, and 22% in the West. This is compared with US population residences, which are 20% Northeast, 38% South, 20% Mid-West, and 22% West. Southerners appear to be more likely to attend Lewis & Clark Bicentennial events in Montana than groups from other areas.
- Respondents 41-50 years old expressed more interest in visiting Montana for Lewis & Clark Bicentennial events that other groups, with 26% of those very likely to attend falling into this age category compared to 21% of the US population. 20% of those very likely to attend were 21-30 years old, 24% were 31-40 years old, 15% were 51-60 years old, and 15% were 61 years or older.
- Surprisingly, there was no gradient of likelihood exhibited among income levels. Respondents very likely to attend Lewis & Clark Bicentennial events in Montana nearly mirrored the US population in terms of household income, with 20% making $30,000 or less, 16% with $30,000 to $45,000, 13% with $45,000-$60,000, 14% with $60,000-$90,000, and 13% with more than $90,000.
Implications
- It is more successful to plan for a managed event than to plan for the unknown. Marketing and infrastructure go hand-in-hand for managing this event successfully. Montana should do all it can to disperse visitation over the years 2003-2006 and throughout the state in order to reduce social and environmental impacts.
- Marketing is the key to dispersion - visitors must be persuaded to come to Montana during all four years and to visit all areas of the state. This will disperse the positive economic impacts while avoiding concentration of negative environmental impacts. Marketing will shape the Lewis & Clark Bicentennial visitation and provide event organizers with a plan for how the Bicentennial will proceed.
- Beef-up infrastructure along the trail, especially in rural Montana, to provide services to additional visitors. This should be done according to the marketing objectives of the state so that services are situated in appropriate areas at appropriate times.
Limitations of the Study
- The anniversary of the Expedition in Montana is still five years away - a lot can happen!
- This is the first Lewis & Clark research to be conducted. Estimates may be revised as more research occurs.
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