Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research

Economic Impacts of Going to the Sun Road Reconstruction

Report Number: Technical Completion Report 98-5
Authors: Norma P. Nickerson and Ross E. Nickerson
Month Published: June 1998

Introduction

Glacier National Park (GNP) is investigating the possibility of accelerating the process of reconstructing the Going-to-the-Sun (GTTS) Road in the Park. Two alternative reconstruction options are being considered beyond Alternative C.

Accelerated Reconstruction Alternative A would take 9-10 years at a construction cost of $90-$105 million. This alternative would provide access to Logan Pass from both sides of the Park on a one-lane road with hour-long delays for passing traffic during June through August, with full closure of both sides of Logan Pass after Labor Day.
Fast-Track Reconstruction Alternative B would take 4 or 6 years at a construction cost of $70-$85 million. This alternative would provide access to Logan Pass from one side of the Park only (either from the west side while the east side is being reconstructed or from the east side while the west side is being reconstructed).
No Action/Status Quo Alternative C is the continuation of reconstruction on a piecemeal basis for the next 50 years at a cost of over $200 million for the entire road system.

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to estimate the potential economic impact of the various reconstruction alternatives of the GTTS to provide the necessary information needed to make an informed decision about the alternative choices.

Methods

Secondary data was used for this study.

Data from the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research nonresident summer visitor study included a separate analysis of nonresident visitors who were attracted to Montana because of GNP, their characteristics in length of stay, expenditures, and group size.
Data from the "Vehicle Movement and Traffic Study: Glacier National Park" report, provided estimates on nonresident length of stay in GNP and expected visitor behavior based on various scenarios of road construction, i.e. the percent who said they would not visit GNP under certain conditions.
Estimates on the number of times visitors re-enter GNP from the "Glacier National Park Visitor Use Study."
Descriptions of each reconstruction alternative from information provided by GNP, letters by the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration (FHA), and discussions with GNP personnel.

Data analysis consisted of estimating the number of nonresident visitors to the Park, taking the percent of those who were in Montana primarily for GNP, and incorporating the number who said they would not come to GNP under certain reconstruction alternatives to determine the economic impact. Nonresidents were the unit of analysis because nonresidents make up 80.5% of all Park visitors.

Results

Both Alternatives A and B would have substantial negative economic impacts due to losses in tourism.

Accelerated Reconstruction Alternative A (10 year scenario):

$161 million in direct tourism dollar loss to the state.
$125 million in direct tourism dollar loss to the Glacier area.*
$258 million in total losses to the state.
$225 million net direct loss to the state accounting for construction gains.
Statewide, the lodging industry would lose $30 million, retail would lose $39 million, restaurant & bar would lose $28 million, gasoline and oil losses would be $33 million, and all other losses would be $31 million.

Fast-Track Reconstruction Alternative B (4-year completion with 2 different east/west closure scenarios):

$81-$84 million in direct tourism dollar loss to the state.
$63-$65 million in direct tourism dollar loss to the Glacier area.*
$129-$135 million in total losses to the state.
$99-$105 million net direct loss to the state accounting for construction gains.
Statewide, the lodging industry would lose $15-$16 million, retail would lose $20-$21 million, restaurant & bar would lose $14 million, gasoline and oil losses would be $16-17 million and other losses would be $15-$16 million.

Fast-Track Reconstruction Alternative B (6-year completion with 2 different east/west closure scenarios):

$126-$129 million in direct tourism dollar loss to the state.
$98-$101 million in direct tourism dollar loss to the Glacier area.*
$202-$207 million in total losses to the state.
$173-$179 million net direct loss to the state accounting for construction gains.
Statewide, the lodging industry would lose $24 million, retail would lose $31-$32 million, restaurant & bar would lose $22 million, gasoline and oil losses would be $26-$27 million and other losses would be $24-$25 million.

* The Glacier Area includes St. Mary, Essex, Columbia Falls, Whitefish, East Glacier, West Glacier, Kalispell, and Waterton.

Conclusions

In comparing the Alternatives being considered for the reconstruction effort, a number of observations can be made about the economic impacts.

When comparing losses on an annual basis, Alternative A is a better choice since annual losses in A are lower.
The duration of losses would suggest that Alternative B is a better choice simply because the impact is over a shorter time period.
From the standpoint of pure "bottom-line" impact, Alternative B, 2/2 (2 year west side closure and 2 year east side closure) provides the least total loss to the Montana and Glacier Area economies when alternative C is not considered.
Alternative C, "status quo," appears to have no economic impact, but the ‘risk’ associated with this Alternative may ultimately result in a higher economic cost if road failure occurs and immediate closure is required.
The potential to mitigate the economic impact through marketing opportunities under Alternatives A and B could substantially reduce the impact predicted in this report.

It is not expected that additional studies to further define the economic impact to the state and the Glacier area would produce a substantial change in the numbers. Therefore, an additional study with primary data collection is not needed. Instead, it is recommended that a team of interested individuals cooperate to design and implement a Reconstruction Survival Marketing Plan. The survival plan would provide ideas and implementation procedures to decrease the potential impact of visitor loss to the Glacier Area and the State of Montana if either Alternative A or B is chosen for reconstruction.

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